SFC 4/26/12

Note: Because it is a stunt day, I figured I would list all the picks I will be making along with my typical write-ups. Do note that these stunt day picks will NOT affect my "Blog Record;" only the picks I actually blog about. GL Everyone!

****ALL PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE****

Stunt Day Record: 4-7

Birdie: Not too many stats that can back this up, as it is just the first round of the tournament. However, Bubba is coming off his win at the Masters, and should be able to birdie here.

9 Strokes or Fewer: Given that this is a Par 3, and we have three golfers in the prop, I am banking on the fact that all three will get par. There is also a chance however that one will bogey, and one will birdie. It seems your best chances are with taking the under.

Par: Just kind of a gut call here. he is listed at +10,000 to be the leader after the first round, so chances are he will not birdie, or even eagle on this hole.

Yes Run Scored: In today’s game, the Royals will have Mendoza on the mound, who has an ERA of 6.92. As for the Indians, they have Tomlin on the mound, who has an ERA of 4.86. In the first two games of this series, a run has been scored. FOR INFO CHECKOUT THE WRITE-UP BELOW

3 or More Hits: In today’s game, the Angles will have Jerome Williams on the mound, against Tampa Bay’s Matt Moore. So far this season, Williams has given up 1.3 hits per inning pitched. As for Moore, he has given up 1.0 hits per inning pitched. With that being said, this is a tossup.

See Write-Up Below (LA Angels @ Tampa Rays)

No Extra Base Hit: Now interestingly enough, in the fourth inning of the first two games of this series, there was an extra base hit (both were homeruns). Going against the trends here.

Yes a Goal Scored: Valencia scores 35.7% of their goals in the first 30 minutes of the game. as for Madrid, they score 30.8% of their goals in the first 30 minutes. Your best bet is to take the yes.

See Write-Up Below (Atletico Madrid @ Valencia)


Atletico Madrid: Madrid has actually been a very strong road team in UEFA play so far this season. I think they will be down at halftime, and want to score quickly in the second half to make sure they advance to the next round.

See Write-Up Below (Ottawa Senators @ New York Rangers)

No Goal Scored: In the first three games of the series, a goal was not scored in the first ten minutes. However, in the last three games of the series, a goal was scored. In my mind I think the teams will play lock down defense to start the first period.

See Write-Up Below (First Three Selections)


Offense: Given the fact the the Jaguars just traded up, it seems obvious to me that they will be taking Justin Blackmon.

Florida Panthers: The Devils have not been playing good hockey this series, and I think they are running out of gas. The home team is the logical pick here.

Any Other State: According to one of the mock drafts I just looked at, it appears Justin Blackmon of Oklahoma State is going to go at number 7. Since Jacksonville needs a wide receiver, this appears to be a solid pick.

ACC or SEC: Looking at the players on the board, this seems like the pick.


Any Other Conference: When looking at the players projected to go around number 11, there are not too many players from those conferences, in fact the player projected to go there is not from the Pac-12 or the Big Ten.

255 Pounds or More: Right around this pick, a lot of defensive and offensive linemen are projected to go. In fact, an offensive tackle is projected to be taken by the Cardinals at number 13.

Defense: This pick belongs to the Jets, and a lot of defensive players are projected to go around this pick. Although the Jets could use a wide receiver, I do not think Michael Floyd will still be on the board.

Any Other Conference

No a Big 10 Player Will Not be Selected

Yes a Runs is Scored VS No a Run is Not Scored

The key thing for me when looking at this prop is the fact that in the first two games of the series, a run was scored in the first inning. Although these teams do not have a reputation for being a good team, that does not mean they cannot score runs. In these two teams’ specific cases, they are actually decent offensive teams, however they both struggle with their rotations. If they could both just get solid starting pitching, they would be decent teams. Once again today, we have two pitchers who are not solid, and both have a high ERA. Tomiin is on the mound for the Indians, who has an ERA of 4.86. as for the Royals, they will have Medoxa on the mound, who has an ERA of 6.92. With that being said, I think there is a very good chance a run is scored in the first inning. It may be a risky pick, but you got to go with it.

My Pick: Yes a Run is Scored

Confidence: 3/5

Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

For our first full write-up of the day, we have the third game of a three game series between the Angels, and the Tampa Bay Rays. In the first two games of the series, the Rays were able to win both. On Tuesday, the Rays were able to win 5-0, and then on Wednesday, they were able to win again 3-2. So far this season, the Angels have really been struggling, as they are only 6-12 so far, and are 3-7 in their last ten games. The Angels are entering this game on a three game losing streak, and will have to play on the road, where they are only 2-6 so far this season. As for the Rays, they are just starting to heat up. After they lost four in a row, they have now won seven of their last nine games, and are entering this game on a four game winning streak. So far this season, they are 11-7, and will be happy to be at home, where they are 7-1 so far this season. In tonight’s game, we have a pitching matchup between two unproven pitchers. For the Angels, they will have Jerome Williams on the mound, and he will be against the Rays’ Matt Moore. Now Williams has been involved with many different clubs throughout his career. Throughout his career, Williams has not been a great pitcher, and has only a 4.27 ERA and is 28-30. So far this season, through two starts, he is 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA. Those two starts came against the Yankees and Orioles. As you would imagine, he was able to beat the Orioles, but not the Yankees. When looking at the Rays stats, they are averaging 5 runs per game when at home, so Williams will have his hands full. As for Matt Moore, he is a very young prospect, with a bright future. In the minor leagues, he was a stud with great numbers. Now so far this season, through three starts, he has not pitched overly well. He is only 0-1, with a 5.12 ERA. Do bear in mind however, that he has played some solid teams so far this season. So far, he has gone up against the Tigers, Red Sox, and Twins. Now the Twins are not the best team, but as you would imagine, that was his best outing. Luckily for Moore, he will not be going against the Angles offense that is only averaging 4.1 runs per game on the road. Now although they are the tenth best road offense, you hope that Moore would get a lot of run support. It should be noted that Tampa Bay is 5-0 in their last five games when playing the Angels. As you would guess, the Rays are entering this game as the favorite at -155, over the Angels at +138. So far this season, the Rays are 5-2 as favorites, where the Angels are only 1-4 as underdogs.

Bottomline: The key in this game for both teams will be pitching. Neither team has a pitcher on mound that has been playing too great this season. I have a feeling this is going to be a high scoring game. The winner will most likely be the team that has their starting pitcher go deeper, so they do not have to rely on their bullpen. With that being said, I like Rays here. They have the better offense, and the better pitcher in my opinion.

My Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Confidence: 3/5

Atletico Madrid Win or Draw @ Valenica

Next up today, we have a meeting between Valencia and Atletico Madrid. This will be the second leg of a two legged match for the UEFA Europa League. In the first meeting, Atletico was able to beat Valencia at home by a score of 4-2, and therefore are already winning the aggregate scoring 4-2. As long as they do not lose by two or more goals, they will advance to the next round. With that being said, both these clubs are coming from the Spanish Premier League. Right now Valencia is third in the standings with a record of 15-9-10. In their last five games, they are 2-1-2, with their lose coming at Madrid. So far in the UEFA season, Valencia is 4-2-1 through seven games. When playing at home they are 3-0-0. As for Madrid, they are entering this game with a record of 13-12-9, and currently in seventh place in the Spanish Table. In their last five games, they are 3-2-0. As for their UEFA season, Madrid is 15-1-1 so far. They will have to play on the road for this game, where they are 6-1-1 so far this season. As for how these teams matchup against each other, Valencia is averaging 3.00 goals per match, and have not failed to score at home. They will be against the Madrid defense that allows .62 goals per match and has four clean sheets. On the other side of the ball, Madrid scores and average of 2.00 goals per match, and has failed to score in one away match. They will be against the Valencia defense that allows .67 goals per match, and have two clean sheets in three games. Now this will be the third meeting between these teams this season. Take note that all the games were played in Atletico Madrid. In the first game, both teams came away with a draw, as the game ended with a score of 0-0. As mentioned before, the first leg matchup ended in a 4-2 finish in favor of Atletico Madrid. Now one thing that is very important in regards to this matchup, is the fact that Madrid does not necessarily need to win this matchup in order to advance. If they lose 1-0, they will still advance. With that being said, Atletico Madrid win or draw is being listed as the favorite at -138, over Valencia win which is at +100.

Bottomline: Although this is a UEFA game, it can be treated like a regular Spanish Premier game because when you look at these two teams, they are both from that league. Although Madrid has proven to be a strong road team in UEFA play, they have not been that great during their regular season play. On top of that, I will say once again that they do not need to win this game in order to advance. With that being said, I like Valencia to win, but not advance.

My Pick: Valencia Win

Confidence: 3.5/5

Ottawa Senators @ New York Rangers

Next up tonight, we have a straight up hockey meeting between the Ottawa Senators and the New York Rangers. This will be Game 7 of the seven game series. As you would guess, the series is currently tied at three games apiece. With that being said, it is simple for both teams, win or go home. This is a classic 1 versus 8 seed matchup, however it has gone seven games. When you look at the Senators, they enter this game with a record of 41-31-10. They will have to play on the road, where they are 21-14-6. Believe it or not, they were actually a better road team than home team during the regular season. With that in mind, they are 5-2 in their last seven road games. As for the Rangers, they are entering this game with a record of 51-24-7. During the regular season, they were 27-12-2 at home. Although this appears to be an advantage, it may prove not to be, as they are only 1-4 in their last five home games. So far this series, in the three games the Rangers have played at home, they are only 1-2 with two straight losses. One interesting stat to be aware of is the fact that the Rangers have failed to win back to back games all series long. After winning Game 6, they have to try and win their first pair of games. When looking at how these teams matchup against each other, the Senators are coming into this game scoring 3.2 goals per game on the road, and will be against the Rangers defense that allows only 2.2 goals per game. By the numbers, these two teams are tops in their respective categories. Whichever side wins will be the determining factor of the game. On the other side of the ball, the Rangers are averaging 2.8 gaols per game at home, and will be against the Senators defense that is allowing 2.8 goals per game on the road. With all this being said, it should be noted that the Senators are actually 7-1 in their last 8 game when playing on the road against the Rangers. Entering this game, the Rangers are listed as the favorite at -165.

Bottomline: Although the Rangers were the better team during the regular season, if you only looked at the statistics and how these teams have played during this series, you would say the Senators have been the better team. You could also argue that the Rangers are home, but as you can see by the numbers, MSG has been Ottawa’s home rink.

My Pick: Ottawa Senators

Confidence: 3.5/5

Luck-Griffin-Kalil VS Any Other Order

Well when you look at this prop, you could really just change the wording of this prop to who will the Vikings pick at number 3? When you look at the first three picks, we already know what the first two picks are going to be. The Colts have already leaked out that they are going to take Andrew Luck at number 1. After them, it is almost set in stone that the Redskins will then take Robert Griffin III. With that being said, it all comes down to this third pick. Now if there is one guy they are after, it is Matt Kalil. It is pretty obvious that he is the guy they want, and will draft him in the first round. However, what is difficult to project is when and where they will take him. Now the Buccaneers, who are sitting at number 5, really want Trent Richardson. There are rumors saying that there is a chance the Bucs will trade up to get Richardson, before the Browns draft him at number 4. This would work out for the Vikings because Kail would still be available a few picks later, and they would get most likely more picks out of the trade. This is what the real debate is over what will the Vikings do with their pick. As of now, people close to the draft are saying the Vikings will simply take Kalil, but may trade the pick if the right offer is made. According to people close to the draft, they are saying that the Vikings are trying to get a deal done, and trade the draft pick. They are saying that that deal will most likely get done while they are on the clock.

My Pick: Any Other Order

Confidence: 5/5 LOCK OF THE DAY

Offense vs Defense

When you look at the move that just took place, the Jacksonville Jaguars just traded up for the fifth overall pick. When you look at their team, it seems that they really need a WR. The Jaguars have a lot off needs, but when you look top to bottom of the players on the board, Justin Blackmon seems to be the best option for them. If you did not know already, he is a wide receiver, in other words an offensive player.

My Pick: Offense

Confidence: 4/5


ACC or SEC VS Any Other Conference

Given the players still left on the board, I would not be surprised if they took a player from the ACC or the SEC. When you look at their needs, it is clear to me that they need a defensive player. When you look at some of the best defensive players on the board, the majority of them are from either an ACC school, or an SEC school. With that being said, I think there is a good chance they pick a player from one of these schools.

My Pick: ACC or SEC School

Confidence: 3.5/5